pinboard June 21, 2021

  • How ranked-choice voting could change the way democracy works
    More places are adopting ranked-choice voting. Why?

    With the ranked-choice ballot, if none of the candidates receives a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and her votes are distributed to her voters’ second-choice candidates. The process repeats until one of the candidates collects more than half the votes.

  • [Essay] A Complicating Energy, By Elisa Gabbert | Harper's Magazine
    On a year without strangers
  • 16 types of useful predictions
    How often do you make predictions (either about future events, or about
    information that you don’t yet have)? If you’re a regular Less Wrong reader
    you’re probably familiar with the idea that you should make yourbeliefs pay rent
    by saying, "Here’s what I expect to see if my belief is correct, and here’s how
    confident I am," and that you should then update your beliefs accordingly,
    depending on how your predictions turn out.

    And yet… my impression is that few of us actually make predictions on a regular
    basis. Certainly, for me, there has always been a gap between how useful I think
    predictions are, in theory, and how often I make them.

    I don’t think this is just laziness. I think it’s simply not a trivial task to
    find predictions to make that will help you improve your models of a domain you
    care about.

    At this point I should clarify that there are two main goals predictions can
    help with:

    1. Improved Calibration(e.g., realizing that I’m only correct about Domain X
    70% of the time, not 90% of the time as I had mistakenly thought).
    2. Improved Accuracy(e.g., going from being correct in Domain X 70% of the time
    to being correct 90% of the time)

    If your goal is just to become better calibrated in general, it doesn’t much
    matter what kinds of predictions you make. So calibration exercises typically
    grab questions with easily obtainable answers, like "How tall is Mount Everest?"
    or "Will Don Draper die before the end of Mad Men?" See, for example, the
    Credence Game, Prediction Book, and this recent post. And calibration training
    really does work.

    But even though making predictions about trivia will improve my general
    calibration skill, it won’t help me improve my models of the world. That is, it
    won’t help me become more accurate, at least not in any domains I care about. If
    I answer a lot of questions about the heights of mountains, I might become more
    accurate about that topic, but that’s not very helpful to me.

    So I think the difficulty in prediction-

  • HifiFace: 3D Shape and Semantic Prior Guided High Fidelity Face Swapping
    HifiFace: 3D Shape and Semantic Prior Guided High Fidelity Face Swapping
  • A Juror's Guide to Going Rogue | Practical Ethics
  • The birthplace of the modern apple
    4/ The modern apple comes from Kazakhstan. Russian scientist Nikolai Vavilov called it in 1929 on the basis that the ‘centres of origin’ of a species lie in the places where you find its highest genetic diversity. DNA testing confirmed it.

    https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20181120-the-birthplace-of-the-modern-apple

  • Physicists bring human-scale object to near standstill, reaching a quantum state
  • Tropes and Networked Digital Activism #1: Trope-Field Fit
  • Oregon Has Legalized Human Composting
  • Untitled (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/19/us/politics/republican-states.html)
    RT @nycsouthpaw: Georgia Republicans throw people of color off county election boards in an effort to make the election results easier for the party to subvert.
  • (400) https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1406695665661485056/photo/1
    RT @Climatologist49: The sun rose this morning in parts of eastern Alaska before it finished setting in parts of western Alaska. @capture907 @AlaskaWx
  • The memo you're not supposed to see: 11 ways to hide money offshore
  • The Guitar Playing of Julian Lage
    His music appears to be a revelation unfolding in real time—a genuine portrayal of an interior state.
  • How I Found A Vulnerability To Hack iCloud Accounts and How Apple Reacted To It
    This article is about how I found a vulnerability on Apple forgot password endpoint that allowed me to takeover an iCloud account. The vulnerability is completely patched by Apple security team and it no longer works. Apple Security Team rewarded me $18,000 USD as a part of their bounty program but I refused to receive […]
  • Blue Animals Are Different from All the Rest — The Atlantic
    Some of the colors we see on creatures such as blue jays and poison-dart frogs aren’t created by pigments at all.
  • My Father Vanished When I Was 7. The Mystery Made Me Who I Am.
    My dad was a riddle to me, even more so after he disappeared. For a long time, who he was – and by extension who I was – seemed to be a puzzle I would never solve.

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